No major economic news came out this week, so today’s column consists of a bunch of quick hits on mortgage rates, unemployment claims, job security, and two special wishes.
Mortgage Rates Rise Again
The average 30-year conforming mortgage rate rose to 6.38% this week, up from 6.22% the previous week. One year ago, mortgage rates were averaging 6.65%.
Since the war in Iran began, 30-year mortgage rates have risen by 40 basis points on concerns that oil shortages will drive inflation, and thus rates, higher. Another concern is that the $200 billion the Trump administration needs to fund the war will drive up rates for US treasuries, which would also bring mortgage rates higher.
This is not the best news as we head into the spring housing market, but keep in mind that over the past 50 years mortgage rates have averaged 7.6%. We all miss 3% mortgage rates, but we can’t expect something that’s only happened once to return so soon.
Jobless Claims Remain Historically Low
Initial claims for unemployment ticked up to 210,000 last week, but remain significantly lower than their average of 374,000 over the past 50 years. I promise that will be thelast 50-year reference in this column.
There was also good news on continuing claims for unemployment, which fell to their lowest level in almost two years.
This data is more evidence that we remain in a no-fire economy. We’ll find out if we are still in a no-hire economy when the BLS releases their March employment report one week from today.
We’re Not the Only Ones Worried About Our Jobs
ADP just released their annual Global Workforce Survey, which asks people around the world how they feel about their jobs. Just 28% of respondents in the US said they strongly agree their job is safe from being eliminated.
I’ll give you a second to guess which country had thehighest percentage.
Times up, it was Nigeria. At 38%, they were the only market where more than a third of workers said with confidence their jobs were safe.
The most insecure workers were in Japan, were just 5% of workers said their job was safe. You can view the full report at this link.
Happy Anniversary Jo-Ann
I’d like to wish my beautiful wife Jo-Ann a happy anniversary. It will be 28 years on the 28th, so I guess this is a special one. I don’t know how you’ve put up with me this long, but don’t stop now.
Let’s Go St. John’s!
It’s great to have my alma mater back in the Sweet 16 for the first time in 27 years. Not so happy about playing Duke, especially since I was there the last two times we played them in the NCAA tournament and we lost both. Hopefully coach Pitino can get some revenge tonight. Let’s go Johnnies!
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