Author: Greg Heym
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The Line: Consumer Prices Fell More than Expected in June
Today, we have some great news on inflation. Enjoy it while it lasts. The consumer price index declined by 0.4% last month, beating the consensus forecast of a 0.1% dip. This was the largest monthly decline in consumer prices in over six years. Over the past year the CPI was up 3.5%, which was lower than…
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The Line: June Job Growth Weaker than Expected
Today, we have the latest on jobs and celebrate two important holidays. Employers added 57,000 jobs last month, well below the 115,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast. Here are the other highlights of the jobs report: While this report is a bummer, especially after strong job growth in the previous three months, it’s certainly not the…
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The Line: May Job Growth Much Higher than Expected
This week, we have the latest on the labor market, which has taken off like a rocket in the past three months. May Job Growth Much Higher than Expected Payrolls rose by 172,000 last month, easily beating the consensus estimate of 80,000. Here are the other headlines from the Labor Department’s report: So, this is…
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The Line: Consumer Prices Up 3.8% from a Year Ago
This week, The Line looks at prices and spending, which go together like milk and cookies. Consumer Prices Up 3.8% from a Year Ago The consumer price index rose 0.6% in April and was 3.8% higher than a year ago. The 3.8% annual increase in headline CPI was the largest in almost three years. The biggest inflation…
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The Line: Employment Rose by 115,000 Last Month
Today, we have the April jobs report courtesy of my old employer, the BLS. Employment Rose by 115,000 Last Month Another month, another blow away jobs number. Here are the details: After ping ponging since last May, the US has had back-to-back strong months of job growth. In other good labor market news, initial claims for unemployment recently fell…
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The Line: Economic Growth Picked up in 1Q26
Today, we have the latest on GDP and PCE from the BEA. If you know what all those letters mean you’re either an economist or read this column every week. Welcome to the three-letter edition of The Line. Economic Growth Picked up in 1Q26 Gross domestic product, which is the value of all the goods and services produced in the US, rose…
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The Line: Say Less Fed
This week, we love what Kevin Warsh said about members of the Fed speaking too much. Welcome to the “loose lips sink ships” edition of The Line. Say Less Fed No, I’m not trying to show my knowledge of the latest slang, just saying I want the Federal Reserve to speak less. President Trump’s nominee for the next chair of the Fed agrees…
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The Line: Fed’s Preferred Measure of Inflation 3% Higher than a Year Ago
Today, we’re all about inflation with the latest on PCE and CPI. Fed’s Preferred Measure of Inflation 3% Higher than a Year Ago As you loyal readers know, the Fed prefers the core personal consumption expenditures price index—AKA core PCE—to measure inflation, as it presents a more complete picture of prices and spending. That said, this data is from February—they…
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The Line: Mortgage Rates Rise Again
No major economic news came out this week, so today’s column consists of a bunch of quick hits on mortgage rates, unemployment claims, job security, and two special wishes. Mortgage Rates Rise Again The average 30-year conforming mortgage rate rose to 6.38% this week, up from 6.22% the previous week. One year ago, mortgage rates were averaging 6.65%. Since the war…
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The Line: The Fed Leaves Rates Alone
Today, we have the latest from the Federal Reserve. The Fed Leaves Rates Alone As expected, the Fed made no changes to interest rates this week. While that doesn’t seem that exciting, they did release their latest summary of economic projections, which gives us some insight into when they may act again. Here’s a summary of their economic forecast: To sum up, the Fed expects decent…