Author: Greg Heym
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The Line: Consumer Prices Up 3.8% from a Year Ago
This week, The Line looks at prices and spending, which go together like milk and cookies. Consumer Prices Up 3.8% from a Year Ago The consumer price index rose 0.6% in April and was 3.8% higher than a year ago. The 3.8% annual increase in headline CPI was the largest in almost three years. The biggest inflation…
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The Line: Employment Rose by 115,000 Last Month
Today, we have the April jobs report courtesy of my old employer, the BLS. Employment Rose by 115,000 Last Month Another month, another blow away jobs number. Here are the details: After ping ponging since last May, the US has had back-to-back strong months of job growth. In other good labor market news, initial claims for unemployment recently fell…
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The Line: Economic Growth Picked up in 1Q26
Today, we have the latest on GDP and PCE from the BEA. If you know what all those letters mean you’re either an economist or read this column every week. Welcome to the three-letter edition of The Line. Economic Growth Picked up in 1Q26 Gross domestic product, which is the value of all the goods and services produced in the US, rose…
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The Line: Say Less Fed
This week, we love what Kevin Warsh said about members of the Fed speaking too much. Welcome to the “loose lips sink ships” edition of The Line. Say Less Fed No, I’m not trying to show my knowledge of the latest slang, just saying I want the Federal Reserve to speak less. President Trump’s nominee for the next chair of the Fed agrees…
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The Line: Fed’s Preferred Measure of Inflation 3% Higher than a Year Ago
Today, we’re all about inflation with the latest on PCE and CPI. Fed’s Preferred Measure of Inflation 3% Higher than a Year Ago As you loyal readers know, the Fed prefers the core personal consumption expenditures price index—AKA core PCE—to measure inflation, as it presents a more complete picture of prices and spending. That said, this data is from February—they…
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The Line: Mortgage Rates Rise Again
No major economic news came out this week, so today’s column consists of a bunch of quick hits on mortgage rates, unemployment claims, job security, and two special wishes. Mortgage Rates Rise Again The average 30-year conforming mortgage rate rose to 6.38% this week, up from 6.22% the previous week. One year ago, mortgage rates were averaging 6.65%. Since the war…
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The Line: The Fed Leaves Rates Alone
Today, we have the latest from the Federal Reserve. The Fed Leaves Rates Alone As expected, the Fed made no changes to interest rates this week. While that doesn’t seem that exciting, they did release their latest summary of economic projections, which gives us some insight into when they may act again. Here’s a summary of their economic forecast: To sum up, the Fed expects decent…
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The Line: Consumer Prices Up 2.4% from a Year Ago
While today is Friday the 13th, we promise not to scare you in this edition of The Line. Consumer Prices Up 2.4% From a Year Ago The consumer price index rose 0.3% in February and was 2.4% higher than a year ago. Both these figures matched expectations, so this report is good news. Core CPI, which excludes food and…
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The Line: Mortgage Rates Fall Below 6% for the First Time in Over Three Years
This week, we celebrate a milestone for mortgage rates, and wonder if anyone’s job is safe from AI. Mortgage Rates Fall Below 6% for the First Time in Over Three Years What a great way to start off this week’s column! According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year conforming mortgage rate fell to 5.98% this week, its first…
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The Line: Job Growth Much Higher than Expected in January
This week, we dedicate this column to the delayed January jobs report. Job Growth Much Higher than Expected in January Yep, you read that correctly. Payrolls rose by 130,000 last month according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than double the Dow Jones estimate. Wait a minute, didn’t the ADP report issued last week say that employment was up by just 22,000 in…