The fall market is offering buyers more choice, though overall supply in Manhattan remains historically low. New listings have arrived in force across Manhattan and Brooklyn, marking the second-strongest two-week period after Labor Day in each borough’s tracking history. Buyers are getting back out there, too, with open-house attendance rising sharply since August, according to the Brown Harris Stevens Open House Index.
That renewed activity comes with a complication: mortgage rates reached their highest levels since January 2025 this week. There is more to see, but for buyers financing a purchase, monthly costs remain a central consideration.
A Fresh Wave of Listings
With Labor Day falling on September 7 this year, these comparisons align the first two weeks after the holiday in each year, rather than matching calendar dates.
Manhattan welcomed 1,103 new listings during the first two weeks after Labor Day, up 6% from the comparable period last year. Only 2021 brought a larger opening wave since 2020.
Brooklyn added 617 new listings, up 24% from last year and 17% above the average of the prior five fall openings. That also ranks second only to 2021, when I began tracking Brooklyn data.
At this point in the fall, new listings naturally outpace signed contracts. Buyers need time to visit homes, compare options, negotiate, and conduct due diligence before signing a contract. The early gap alone tells us little about where demand will settle. The more immediate story is how much inventory has arrived and how buyers are beginning to respond.
August’s Inventory Decline Reverses
The change in available inventory has been swift. Manhattan’s active supply fell 25% between late July and early September, then rebounded 26% to 5,464 listings, approaching its late-July level. Brooklyn’s inventory has climbed from its late-summer low of 3,182 to 3,594, slightly above its July level.
Some homes are new to the market; others are returning after being temporarily taken off the market during the summer. For buyers, the practical result is the same: a broader selection. For sellers, it means more competition for attention.
Buyers Are Back at Open Houses
While signed contracts tell us about decisions already made, open-house attendance offers an earlier look at buyer activity as it takes shape.
Sara Rotter’s Brown Harris Stevens Open House Index reported an average of 2.46 groups per open house last week, up 41% from 1.74 in the previous report in August.
Sara notes that, given Rosh Hashanah, we were pleasantly surprised by the level of traffic reported from last weekend’s open houses, an encouraging sign that we expect increased open house attendance later this month and into October.
Today’s visits should begin translating into signed contracts over the next two to three weeks. Attendance doesn’t guarantee offers, but it gives us a useful early signal: buyers are showing up. As the season develops, we’ll be watching how that interest translates into signed contracts.
More Choice, Higher Borrowing Costs
Mortgage rates climbed this week to their highest levels since January 2025 before easing slightly. According to Mortgage News Daily, the average 30-year fixed rate stood at 7.20% on Friday, down from Wednesday’s 7.24%, but above the prior Friday’s 7.12%.
The Federal Reserve also unanimously approved a widely anticipated quarter-point rate increase, its first since July 2023. Officials’ latest projections point to one additional quarter-point increase before year-end.
The Fed does not directly set mortgage rates. Mortgage pricing responds to the bond market and expectations about inflation and future policy, often before an announcement. This week illustrated that distinction: mortgage rates actually eased the day after the Fed’s decision. Still, their broader rise adds pressure to buyers’ monthly budgets.
That helps explain the “K-shaped” dynamic in the city’s housing market: buyers are experiencing different markets depending on their financial position. Those with substantial cash or equity have greater flexibility to take advantage of fresh inventory, while buyers relying more heavily on financing face tighter budgets. More choice is welcome, but it doesn’t necessarily mean greater purchasing power.
What This Means
For buyers: This is a good time to refresh your search and compare new options. If you’re financing, update your numbers with your lender so your search reflects today’s monthly costs. More inventory gives you more options, but negotiating opportunities will depend on the individual home, its pricing, and its competition.
For sellers: Buyers are coming through the door, but they have more alternatives and, in many cases, higher borrowing costs to consider. Thoughtful pricing and strong presentation matter from day one. The goal is to make it easy for buyers to see why your home deserves a place at the top of their list.
Separately, I’m honored to have been included in this year’s Eighty Under 80 award from Jeff Kennedy andMAVERIX. Finally, an industry recognition with a refreshingly generous age cutoff. Thank you to Jeff and the MAVERIX team for including me, and congrats to all the winners! The award has a sense of humor, but my appreciation for being recognized among real estate peers is entirely sincere. For a laugh, watch my acceptance speech.
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