More buyers at open houses. More offers moving toward contract. And Manhattan’s strongest week of signed contracts since July.
After a slow start to fall, NYC’s housing market is showing more signs of momentum. This year, a late Labor Day, the Jewish holiday calendar, and a nor’easter have interrupted the usual timing. Listings arrived, but buyers needed time to visit, compare, negotiate, and move forward. We are now seeing more of that activity reach the contract stage.
The Brown Harris Stevens Open House Index, compiled by Sara Rotter, reported an average of 2.15 groups per open house last weekend, up 75% from the previous report, across a 40% larger sample. Sara noted in her report that attendance was the strongest for the comparable week among recent years, even doubling some previous readings.
Further down the funnel, attorney Andrew Luftig reported four consecutive weeks of increases in new deals coming into his firm, Chaves Perlowitz Luftig LLP. Those are buyers moving from viewing homes to negotiating terms and preparing to sign a contract.
Manhattan recorded 195 signed contracts, up 7% from last week and the highest total since the week ending July 24. That is 7% above the four-year average for this week, although still 7% below last year. The recent trend deserves equal attention. Over the past four weeks, Manhattan averaged 155 contracts per week, up 6% from the preceding four weeks but 22% below the comparable stretch last year. Buyers are re-engaging, but the fall market still has ground to make up.
Brooklyn recorded 122 signed contracts, up 11% from last week and 2% above last year. Its four-week average reached 113 contracts, up 23% from the preceding four weeks and just 5% below last year’s pace.
Momentum is improving in both boroughs, with Brooklyn running closer to last fall’s contract pace. The next few weeks will tell us how much of this is delayed activity catching up and how much becomes sustained momentum.
Buyers also have some more inventory to work with than they did at the end of summer. Manhattan’s active inventory reached6,101 listings, up 1.2% this week and approximately 41% from Labor Day Weekend’s exceptionally low reading. Yet supply remains 12% below last year and 14% below the four-year average for this week. The 342 new listings represented a 14% decline from last week and suggest the initial post-Labor Day listing surge is slowing, as is seasonally normal.
Brooklyn’s supply picture is different. Active inventory slipped 0.9% to3,738 listings, but remains 6% above last year and 10% above the four-year average. Another 200 listings came to market this week, up 18% from last week.
The year-to-date charts help explain why these markets feel different. Manhattan has recorded 12,829 new listings, down 9%, while its 8,424 signed contracts are only 2% behind last year. The flow of listings has slowed much more than the flow of buyers. Brooklyn’s totals are more closely balanced:7,970 new listings, essentially unchanged, and 5,098 contracts, down 1%.
Data sourced from UrbanDigs
That relationship between supply and demand also helps explain why elevated mortgage rates do not automatically translate into falling prices. The accompanying maps from Lance Lambert and ResiClub show a divided national market. The New York region and much of the Northeast show annual price appreciation, while parts of Texas, Florida, and other Sun Belt markets show declines.
Chart courtesy of ResiClub
Chart courtesy of ResiClub
The pandemic affected these regions differently. Some locations experienced an extraordinary rush of buyers and substantial new construction. As that demand cooled and available supply expanded, prices came under pressure. New York City followed a different path, and the availability of homes remains a central part of its story.
The local market has shifted from being driven by increased demand to being constrained by limited supply. In Manhattan, fewer buyers are signing contracts than last year, but the flow of new listings has fallen much more sharply. When supply shrinks faster than demand, the balance can still push prices higher, even with elevated mortgage rates.
Higher borrowing costs can also discourage existing owners from selling and giving up their lower mortgage rate, limiting the inventory available to buyers. A wider gap between their existing rate and today’s rates can reinforce that reluctance. Where new construction cannot readily fill the gap, supply constraints can persist.
Limited supply could support continued, measured appreciation in supply-constrained parts of the five boroughs, provided buyer demand remains fairly consistent with today. That does not mean every neighborhood, property type, or price point will move together. Regional price maps provide context, but a home’s specific characteristics and competing listings help determine the price at which it can sell.
On a personal note, I returned from Boulder after my latest Real Estate Innovation Hub gathering led by Mike DelPrete. These conversations consistently leave me renewed and energized by the people, their openness, and their willingness to learn from one another. And thanks for the new hat, Mike! It’s quite fitting!
This time, much of the discussion centered on data: who controls it, how it connects, and what becomes possible when listing data connects with AI tools. We also explored where AI can help and why human connection, conversation, and judgment need to remain deeply human.
That connects directly to how I approach these updates. Better access to information is valuable. Helping people understand what it means for their home, their finances, and their next move is where the work becomes personal.
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