Manhattan’s supply shrank sharply this week, but the story goes beyond seasonality.
In today’s market, understanding the numbers is only half the story. Understanding what’s driving them is what gives buyers and sellers the clarity to make better decisions.
Every August, Manhattan’s housing market settles into a familiar rhythm. Many sellers postpone launching new listings until after Labor Day. Inventory gradually declines as buyers continue purchasing the homes already on the market. It’s a pattern we’ve seen for years.
This week, however, something different happened. Manhattan’s active inventory fell nearly 10% from last week, to just 5,191 active listings, the lowest level for this point in the year in more than a decade. New listings also slowed to just 138, down 30% from last week and 22% from the same week last year.
A Different Kind of Supply Shortage
Data from RealPlus shows an unusually large number of Manhattan listings were marked either Temporarily Off Market (TOM) or Permanently Off Market (POM) in the REBNY Residential Listing Service (RLS) between Monday (8/3) and Thursday (8/6).
Many of those listings were moved into a REBNY RLS status known as “Participants Only.” Listings in this status remain visible to REBNY members through the RLS, but they are no longer included in the RLS Virtual Office Website (VOW) feed that powers most brokerage websites and consumer listing portals. At the same time, many of the listings were also removed from StreetEasy, which receives listing data directly through manual entry rather than through the RLS VOW feed.
The practical effect is that while other REBNY brokers could still locate and show these properties to their clients, consumers searching online would no longer find them on most brokerage websites or on StreetEasy.
The timing coincided with reports that Compass encouraged many of its New York City agents to temporarily remove listings from StreetEasy as part of a fall marketing strategy designed to refresh listings ahead of the fall market.
Whether sellers ultimately benefit from that strategy is a separate conversation. The important point is that it appears to have had a measurable impact on the amount of inventory consumers could see this week.
The Data Tells a Clear Story
Looking at the firms individually, one company stands apart. Based on an analysis of available RealPlus data, Compass accounted for approximately 43% of the properties taken off the market this week, despite representing roughly 20% of Manhattan’s listing inventory.
When combined with Corcoran, the two firms account for approximately 34% of Manhattan inventory, yet they represented approximately 55% of the properties taken off the market this week.
Another way to look at the data is by the percentage of each firm’s inventory that went off-market. Approximately 15% of Compass’s Manhattan listings were taken off the market this week. Brown Harris Stevens, by comparison, was approximately 4%.
The numbers suggest that one company’s activity played an outsized role in this week’s decline in visible inventory.
The Bigger Question
If buyers remain active, is reducing a property’s visibility across most public real estate websites while concentrating that visibility on a single brokerage’s website the strategy most likely to achieve the best outcome for sellers?
That’s where recent market data becomes particularly interesting. July was tied for the second-strongest July for Manhattan contract activity in the past decade, trailing only the extraordinary post-pandemic market of 2021.
And buyer activity has continued into August. Manhattan signed 192 contracts this week, up 10% from last week despite fewer listings coming to market. Brooklyn also saw an uptick, with contracts increasing 8% while inventory continued to tighten.
Perhaps even more telling was this week’s Brown Harris StevensOpen House Index. Average attendance increased 65% from the previous survey, reaching 2.13 buyer groups per open house, the strongest result we’ve seen for this same week in several years. More than two-thirds of reported listings welcomed at least one buyer group, and several agents reported offers or multiple interested parties immediately following their open houses.
In other words, buyers are actively looking.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers, this week’s inventory decline may overstate how tight the market really is. Some homes didn’t sell. They simply became less visible. That means opportunities still exist, particularly by working with an experienced agent who understands the market beyond what’s immediately visible online.
For sellers, it’s worth asking a simple question. If buyers remain active, open house traffic is strengthening, and July produced one of the strongest months for contracts in a decade, is reducing your home’s visibility the strategy most likely to maximize your outcome?
Every seller’s situation is different, and there may be circumstances where a more limited marketing approach makes sense. But for most sellers, exposing a property to the broadest possible pool of qualified buyers has historically been one of the most effective ways to create competition and achieve the best possible result.
One More Important Signal
Despite the sharp increase in off-market activity, the majority of listings represented by these firms remain publicly marketed.
That suggests the strategy was far from universally adopted. Many sellers and their agents appear to have chosen continued public exposure while buyer activity remains healthy.
If that continues, it may become an equally important part of this story. Even as brokerage marketing strategies evolve, many sellers may ultimately conclude that broad market exposure remains in their best interest and resist other narratives.
The Bottom Line
This week’s headline isn’t simply that inventory fell. It’s why inventory fell that matters.
Some of the decline reflects the normal seasonal slowdown we’ve been discussing for weeks. But a meaningful portion appears to reflect a conscious decision by the city’s largest brokerage to temporarily reduce public exposure for many listings.
At the same time, buyers remain active. Contracts continue to be signed at a healthy pace, pending sales remain well ahead of last year, and open house traffic has strengthened.
That’s why context matters. The visible supply of homes may have fallen sharply this week, but the underlying market continues to show signs of strength. Understanding the difference between what happens naturally and what results from changes in marketing strategies allows buyers and sellers to make better-informed decisions.
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